12.17.25 SubSpaces

The speaker discusses various topics on Polarity Radio, emphasizing the importance of information and communication. They share experiences from different stasis events and express views on trading and navigating financial markets. The discussion also touches on political events, market analysis, duration sensitivity, and personal anecdotes. The speaker highlights the need to seek truth and make informed decisions in a rapidly changing economic landscape. They express skepticism towards certain investment strategies and share insights on monetary policy and credit markets. Good morning and welcome to Polarity Radio on Subscriber Spaces, Wednesday, December 17th, 2025. I am delighted to spend some time with you this morning. This is an information-only stasis, I'll make a transaction on professional advice and I'm not your professional advisor. We've got to start all over again. This is an information-only stasis, I'll make a transaction on professional advice and I'm not your professional advisor. Wednesday, December 17th, 2025. Before we go on, I just want to highlight that I have gone on two different stasis yesterday. One was run by a very talented, successful person who had some octagon activity and another one was run by a woman who, I think they were afraid of her because she didn't get involved very much but they were very restrained in the octagon so that both of them were terrific. It's a reminder that the hostility I'm experiencing is not about me, it's about the message. You've never heard of anything so crazy. People want to prevent other people from hearing symmetry abuse. And so, I remember, it was probably a couple weeks ago, a week ago maybe, there was a fellow who was an intern at Bear Stearns. I let him call me personally from first through DM and then a phone call. To a much extent, 15 hours over many calls trying to explain the model. And he was the one who shouted me down and said, I didn't have the right to speak. You have to factor that in as a friction, as a support, as well as, you know, from that old Star Trek episode or movie where they had a whale song. They had to, I guess, move a whale into the past so that it could repopulate or something like that. They don't allow you to speak. This is new. So, let's all keep that in mind. What I'm attempting to do on Stasis is not tell you how to trade. I'm trying to be, in a sense, a navigator. I'm not guaranteeing I'm going to see everything. Do I try to watch everything in every time frame, intermarket, interderivative? Do I try to produce charts going in multiple dimensions more than traditional? That's my goal. There's no guarantees in life. You're not, you know, a $100,000 a month client, but you're very important to me. And I want to build this network where we get more people on, more people ask questions. You see a lot of times we get questions, but many times we don't. That's why the more people that you have follow me, the more people you might give to, temporary subscription, the more we'll get amplified. We're just on the cusp of $19,800, getting to $20,000 is something, $25,000 is very important, and then two doubles is $100,000, and then the super vast majority, $99.99, don't want more. And then I'll get more interviews with Chris Whalen. Well, I can't get him on right now. I'd be able to get him on at $50,000 because he's less than that. He's very smart. I disagree with him on Bitcoin. He thinks it's worth nothing. Last night, interestingly enough, I went on a basis, if you lose two decimals, if you lose one, the network doesn't work. Anyway, I'd like to go over some of the charts that I put up. I think it's really important what's going on. You had British growth reported in November, about 110 is expected. Inflation fell 3.5 to 3. Interest expected 3.5, it's at 3.2. Meta fall from 3.4. 3.3 nominal GDP. The market price is going to cut. Now, Bailey was a lunatic. He's the one who sabotaged Liz Truss and gave her four Scaramucci. Scaramucci, who's Truss, the communications guy, was fired after 11 days. So we measured times on Star Trek and Parsec, but in politics, in Scaramucci's, 44 days she was gone. He had raised by 50 basis points, followed by 75 US. In a time when they had higher inflation than us. So of course you would expect the currency to decay, rates to go up. And she was out. They got rid of her. They brought in Rishi. And then we got Skirmish. I mean, it's crazy. So would it shock me that this guy goes 5-4 against the cut? Sure. They all want to get rid of Trump. But whether they do now or they don't, doesn't matter. They'll do some more later. But that's some of the pressure. We're trying to watch for the UK curve, which is steep 40, but the 10-year has support at 440, basically the low of the year. And then it went up like 450, but they take the rate down. It's 375. Then you build a carry over time, and then you can take all those lows. You take out 350, it makes it easier. We have to think about lower front end as a source of funds to buy the long end. The lower the policy rates, the more leverage that's going to build up. On the duration side, again, folks, the math is wrong from Cathie Wood's and my opinion and all these other people. Stocks are not positive duration. They're negative duration. They're 180 degrees from right. Crypto, it's negative duration. Gold is negative duration. Duration is a measurement of a sovereign sensitivity. They sucked in all the capital. They're losing out the capital. When you think about a bond at 1% or the JGB 40-year at 4.1 basis points, and they go up to 92, we go up 500, 92 times. The sheer force of flow of capital, you can't see it. I mean, you're taking something that's in a straight draw, and it stops going down, and then policy's trying to pump it up, but they run out of room. But the idea that people will look back, it reminds me of the 80s. My sister's father-in-law, he was a German refugee, and they went to Canada, and they were housed with German pro-Nazis in the same kind of facility until one day, a Jewish guy, a Jewish German, threw a German German off the roof, and they separated them, but, you know, they were up there. He ends up going into science, his parents wanted him to be a teacher, and he ends up getting hired by NASA, a precursor of NASA. And then what happens is, him and a colleague, who was of Russian origin, they get fired, because he was German, and the other guy was Russian, they were both Jewish. So they went into their own business, and they worked on the shuttle program, and he explains why he felt the probability of shuttles blowing up were extraordinarily high. It was one system that he was working on, as you re-enter the Earth, the atmosphere, the inner atmosphere, you lose all telemetry, all communication, for a brief period of time. So they wanted to do a sensor that would read the different gas densities, to be able to get the right angle of re-entry. Terrible problem, terrible problem with the program. And I can't remember the reason why they went into that, but let's try to think. Oh, because he had bought a French insurance company, I can't remember if it was, I can't remember the name, they had zero coupons that were implied yields of like 18%, and they were like going to go bankrupt, and they were mad about it, and they went to par. So today, when there's a strip, you know, a 30-year strip, and that's what's in the ZROZ, these 27-year employed strips, again, not advice, but they're earning over 5% implied yield. There were no competition for equities when they were one, or when the JGV was .4. There's competition now, and ironically, they've become more, or I shouldn't say more, they've become more and more competition, the higher and higher they go, and so when people say, oh my gosh, these rates are going up, and I have up in the nest, I think it's posted, let me see. Yeah, it's the third from the left, if you click on it, you'll see the 40-year JGV. Incidentally, nobody doesn't know that on Friday, at the end of last month, I said I'm a fan of the 40-year JGV. I mean, it was four basis points. These people have lost their minds. Now, did I say I would go all in? Of course not, because I'm not a lunatic. It just went up 92 times. It's like catching a falling knife, when you're not buying anything real, you know, when you're half percent position, one percent position, but it's part of information, the whole ecosystem. So you take it instead of watching it, because you feel it differently. In terms of that with the high day, we're now at a one-month low. I want you to find signs that sniff out truth. Not for me, I'm going to be dead one day. My recordings will be up there, my LLMs will be up there. You've got to look for truth, deterministic things, things that lead other things. Do you know what type of liquidity pump you need to drive something up 92 times? It can't stay up there. Same thing with Bitcoin. I actually think, because they're super excited, a 200K up nine decimals, up a billion percent, doesn't belong anywhere up above a thousand bucks. I understand, you know, it's down eight-tenths of a decimal, they're confident. One decimal is no different. That was expanding on your slide, this is contracting. And then again, when I try to say, someone said there was a pivot in the room once, when someone said, they're going to be putting massive QE, and that's going to be a great pump for Bitcoin, and it says, you know, the Fed's going to do this, and that's not the way to create money. It's not the way to create money. They said nothing creates money, it's people who create money. Borrowing creates the money. They just want the legacy. The government does some of the borrowing, but we need us. And we know investment grade is too tight. No money creation. They have to lower rates, G73, my hashtag, from when they signal they're going to go eating. And we see a deterioration of net credit demand since then. I don't care about these garbage piles, four to one leverage. The private credit psychos. But there was a post on the internet, I reposted it, or I commented on it, and my regular feed, please look at it. Scott Dessen saying, you know, GFC, more rigid, now we have more private credit. It's resilient. A bank is lending with eight to 12% base collateral. Good morning. And private credit, they're lending right now 25 or less, some of the garbage piles. But stable private credit, investment grade private credit, that I believe will be a step up in the next phase and pass through. You're going to be leveraged, 33% capital, 50% capital. That's resilient. That's like an original bank. But the network effect, the fractional banking, is fractional private credit. Securitized, stepped up. We'll say, you know, we'll give it a backstop. But I'm looking, please look at this chart. Look at this global yield curve, it's the steepest in almost a decade. What are you talking about? It's the steepest in 15 years. Like, the Bloomberg chart, how do you, how do you understand what it is? We just went from minus 50 to 115, 120. You know, we had like 180 globally. What happened? It's far exactly worse. It's such, it's such a threat to liquidity. It's zero-Z, ultra-bonds, TLT, it is an existential threat to Bitcoin decimals. They don't want to hear it. So I sent it to this one guy, very good guy, who's in the mining and stuff like that. The next gentleman, I said to him, I was like, it's tough when you get people lying about you, taxing you, trying to minimize you, to not kind of respond. I said, but you know what? I'm doing better, I'm going on mute, I'm trying not to come off of mute, and I'll do better. And he said, that's great. And so people go, oh, he's got subscriptions. So he shock drops people into doing his subscriptions. So the host said, I never heard of that. I never heard of that. I never knew that he had a subscription. He never mentioned it, and I've been listening, he's been on my face many times. Because I'm going on there, number one, to improve my framing. Number two, it is my way of gauging insanity. You know, I'm not on a dealer desk today. Okay, I'm not working and collaborating with a guy running a dealer desk. I don't have that flow, and frankly, I don't think I need it anymore. I think I want to hear the crazy. I think I want to hear the involuntarism of the lay-likes, because they're the last buyers. And when I start to get more and more people thinking, you know what? What's the worst thing? If you review your account once a week, you know, busy people, forget the day traders. You review your account once a week. And just see gradually if cash is outperforming your strategy. Or if, you know, your strategy is outperforming cash. They let you back in and out. So if you start with getting on 5% and 10%, what is the crime? What is the crime if you only make all the money with 90% of your account? What is the, as they say in Starfake, the Jewish drug dealer? What is the value difference? So, I just think, you know, as Bitcoin gets less volatile, it'll be easier. But again, we're using Bitcoin as a learning module. We're not trying to think big in Bitcoin. It's too thin. It's too, um, um, it's too volatile. At any point, I mean, equities is 16. You know, it's like, when you're putting more volatility, you're supposed to have less money. Not more money. Anyway, so, that's my technique. I just do it on a daily basis. A lot of people don't. They watch Cross Access. But I'm trying to help people learn in this most exquisite model. You can see the level of recalcitrance and advantage. It'll be helpful in all assets. Not just that, in my opinion. So, um, you know, the guy says, well, I'm not selling any of them. But if you really get that low, I'll sell every piece of furniture. Folks, it's going to have a big effect. It's going to have a big effect on things. So, when you have stronger and stronger makers, I'm recording. Because the recording doesn't work. For some people, folks. Um, so, when you have higher and higher rates, when people say, oh, we're discounting equities by a ten year. On the one hand, you want to discount it by cash, because you're allowed to get in and out. But on the other hand, you want to discount it as the highest sovereign yield. But then, what happens when yields stop going down? I mean, when yields stop going up. When yields stop going up, it's raising the cost of your collateral because you're making money shorting the bonds to buy Bitcoin. And I'm just using this one example of one market participant strategy. Remember, it's every asset affects every asset. It's a risk field. Every molecule affects every other molecule in the universe. It's just imperceptible in a inverse quadratic world to a universe. And, you know, our universe is two trillion galaxies or four hundred billion stars in each galaxy. And that's only our local universe. It could be an infinite universe, you don't know. But everything affects everything else. So one participant is funding Bitcoin by leverage. And you can almost see, like from one of these sci-fi movies, just a particle leaving equity, leaving crypto, leaving risk, leaving the negative duration. You're losing the density of your negative duration. They're deflating and losing their ability to express incremental mix in short duration. And it's being drawn and brought over like magnetism. And unlike in the weak force radioactive decay that's a further way a particle is from its core, like uranium, plutonium, it's just so unstable. It just sheds stuff. But in magnetism, you don't have that decay. The higher the yield, the more the threshold for growth. And then you have the capital, 70 trillion of equity. And 30 trillion in gold, 35 trillion in housing. And you've got these people talking about an economic crash. We could get a crash. Now, if you could interfere with homeowners' ability to tap in and lower the rates, get the equity out. If you could do that, oh, we would get a recession. The rich would be fine, and the poor would be suffering. But we've cured that for at least this cycle. We'll have a period of... I mean, think about it. We went from 3.4 to 4.6, and it's triggered the FOM rules, it's triggered all of this other stuff causing people to, as you want to do, x, y, z. We're at only 4.6. How's that going to affect housing? So we've got the housing data today, 86%. Refi, it was down, plus 13 housing. We just went up to a 6.38. We're down 6.27. We're 16 basis points below. We had oil at a five-year low yesterday. And on cue, on cue, I was talking about it recently, as oil goes lower, Trump can ratchet up the pressure on Venezuela. Because it doesn't matter who goes first. The other one's going, the Ukraine conflict and Zelensky or Maduro. Both of them are keeping oil prices up. Zelensky's just... You know, Trump invited, I just read this, Trump invited the Pakistan military chief, who is the most powerful military chief in Pakistan history. He was given a constitutional exemption from prosecution. He's in control of the Navy and the Army and the Air Force. And they're trying to say, come in, we want you to be tough. We want you to supervise the Indonesians. It's really difficult right now. There's one hostage body that hasn't been returned. It's not clear they know exactly where it is. Will they be able to get it? It's terrible weather over there. It's flooding places. And Israel, I don't think Israel can agree to move to the next phase without getting that body back. And I'm sorry. You can't let a war go on for one body. Maybe a living person, where you know where it is, but a body that you can even argue. So, very difficult. But, he was in the White House. Trump is telling everyone publicly, I gave a free pass to HTS. He had Al Qaeda roots. But we're saying no, it started from scratch. Here's a check for a hundred billion dollars. Make yourself an oligarch. Just don't bother your names. We're doing it with Pakistan. We are telling the generals everywhere in the world. It's a new world. We're back to the Cold War balkanization, where an oligarch, a military general, can run their people. You just think of what's going on in South America. It's amazing. We've got Argentina leaning to the right. Bolivia's leaning to the right. Chile had a massive movement to the right. A 20-point move to the conservative, whose father was a Nazi. And he's super pro-Israel. Okay, this is not about Israel. I'm not advocating for Israel. But I'm saying, you have the pro-oil, anti-Israel, the anti-, and you have the rest that are pro-technology. Dubai is dealing with Israel, because Israel creates the second most companies listed on NASDAQ. More than all of Europe can type 05. So, we have ABC. 75% of the world's lithium is located in the outer Tundra forest, the Salar de Uyuni, and wherever Argentina has their stuff. They can, they can, I messaged out to BORAC, Arce, and I can't remember at the time who was in charge of Chile. They should make an organization of lithium export companies. Because we're going to need a lot of that stuff going forward. Particularly when interest rates go to zero. The amount of infrastructure the world's going to experience is stuff we've never experienced before. And we're going to run out of lithium, our refining capacity, outside of these areas. It'll probably be one of the firsts. I mean, it's plentiful, but it's still in concentration now. But, we have this, this, this magnet. You're seeing it. We've got a one-month low in the 40-year JGB. It's a sentinel. Try to, I saw, which was this movie that I saw? Where two people had to get along, and they had to use a pole to lift. It might have been a Stallone movie, where they're trying to escape or something. But they needed to collaborate. Whatever the movie was. And he was using a bamboo pole with like a fork on the other side to kind of lift a piston, a spindle, whatever, that was holding a door, a hinge. Something at length. Leverage. When you have the 10-year treasury moving up and the bond moving up, that's a three-to-one leverage on a duration. Five-year bond. Six times. A two-year bond, 15 times. And this is the shock. It is the strain or palpitants of the Bitcoiners, who are hollow and staking and incentivizing, where they say, oh, what's the big deal if it goes down 99%? And it goes to 10 million. Oh, so you'll hear me on the 10 million, but you won't hear me on the down 99% if you actually believed it could happen. If you really want 1% of your coin, your lifestyle will change. It's the same phenomenon with the steepener folks and the gunwags and the Lowry faints, the Druckenmillers. None of these guys was a path built in the mind, to do the volatility trading or the navigating the volatility trading. They never had a deal with that. Louis Blankfein never had a deal with that. Block equity trading, you get a phone call, you're selling a piece of paper to your buddy. You don't have to look out of both sides of your eyes like a bullfrog, wondering which are the two tails. We have the JGD 40 year. It is flattening. We talked about the flattening in the prior couple of weeks. And now, we're at a one month low. You don't want to see the same go to 368, down to 367, down to 330. You don't want to see it go to, it's not 92 times 200. That's three decimals. I mean, two decimals. They're in a recession. They're not subtracting 1.8% anyway. They're not subtracting a 2.3. So they knocked the ant out a little on the idea that maybe they won't like so much folks. They're raising rates by not raising rates. They're not raising rates by not raising rates. They're not raising rates by not raising rates. They're not raising rates by not raising rates. They're not raising rates by not raising rates. They're in deflation, disinflation. From 1989, they went from 45% of global equity ratio, with 2% of the world's population, from 40K almost down to, what is it? 6K, 9K. Some crazy one of them. And they go back up. They pump the money supply up. Nobody wants to hear, oh, I told this story about this psycho guy finishes the Chicago marathon in under two hours. That is disgusting. Under two hours. They disregarded the score because there was too much of a tailwind in Chicago. You don't want to hear about what was a component of Bitcoin's excitation into a billion-percent return. Nothing can withstand a billion-percent return. You cannot experience a hundred-factor growth. It's not... It's not sustainable. It's not sustainable. It's not sustainable. These yields are the death. These super-excited negative duration assets were neutralizing and supplying and absorbing all the LDI, liability-driven investor demand. And we're seeing it. We have Bitcoin go down. We have the 40-year JGB yield coming down. I'm patient. You're patient. It's the start of something amazing. It's the start of the greatest deflationary wave in human history. You have a hundred trillion of equity. We're going to lose 15, 16, 70 percent of it. It's going to go into fixed income. Mortgages. It will take you as mortgage rates, I think, below 2 percent. It'll imagine two hops by mobile. You've got the equity of a hundred trillion of the 70 trillion U.S., 67.5 trillion, however you want to calculate it. It's 2.25 percent GDP. I'm sorry, 67.5. That's 37.5 trillion more than GDP versus 4 trillion more than GDP, 139 times 10.25. So they had to accommodate 4 trillion of excess equity. And that created the greatest housing market of all time. Folks, we've got to accommodate 37.5 trillion. I don't even know what that's going to do. You have the lowest amount of debt in housing. We're going to get more debt in housing. We're going to get fractional ownership of housing. Apple. I mean Amazon is doing it, you know. Okay. So, you know, we have time. We just had a big move. Okay, let's take some looks. Let's see. I'm going to start on the left. So we went over the U.K. growth story. It's zero growth, you know, 0.1, inflation. And Bailey could choose not to do it this time. It'll just mean... Because the longer the euro and the pound stay up, the slower the growth is. They take this real growth. All it is is credit growth by weakness. We're going to flatten. They're going to flatten. And they're going to cut. But they'll cut from a worse position. Okay, let's go next to it. Bitcoin volatility. So volatility is not the same as gamma. So doing a price chart, it's not the same as volatility. Volatility is two tails and it reacts and goes up when people want to buy too much or sell too much. It's like, you know, pushing... I remember I got this thing called the bulwark. It was an isometric exercise thing, I think, in the 70s. It was a compression. But tension is the upward pushing. The tension on a sphere, the tension on a hula hoop, the tension on a belt that's looped, that's volatility. And when you have people that are so eager to buy something or so eager to sell, which is unsustainable, it causes a lift in Bitcoin. And that's what we saw from 31.41 to 92.71, from August 2nd, 23, in the shift to the pause and then the signaling of the pivot. And then you can see the problem with the rates. And then you can see the problem with the rates, going up too much. It was going to be in the end of the cycle. It was going to be disruptive because you had too much bank credit at the time. But now we have a 76% decline in Bitcoin. And so not in this chart, because this only has up to 62 and then 64. We're at 64, I think, or 65, on October 9th and 10th in Bitcoin. Then we retested on November 21, I guess, or something, not far from there. And now we're back down. So we're below the... So we had a golden cross on the daily from that event. But we're back below the 50. We bounced off the 200. We failed the 50. Now we're at what they call no man's land. But we have deteriorating default. And we want to watch this. We want to watch this as a training environment for all volatility. Because what they think in Bitcoin, though, is that they're special. That their religion, their cult, that their soldiers will lead to financial samurai. They're financial samurais, let's call them. Let's try to come up with a conjunctive word. A centuri, like a saint. Centurion, centur. Samurai, a financial samurai. We'll try to figure out a better language for it. But that's what Saylor said. I'm going to take my... I'm going to destroy my coins when I go. I'm committed to this movement. I'm just going to take my coins off like Satoshi's coins. Well, let's watch some reality. Let's see what's going to happen. Let's see in the absence of excitation, in the oil markets, which they were on their way much slower. And they're going lower. These are just... This is just Trump's natural inclination. He did it before he was elected. He did it on April 2nd. He spooks markets. He gets people reacting. They're buying oil off a couple of bucks. You know what's going to happen when there's no shortage of oil? There's no oil coming out of Venezuela. It's the Chicago. And what does it do? It helps the American producers. Do people not get it? By doing that, American producers are making more money. It lowers the trade deficit. So, yeah, Kylito makes them charge with BTC. On the side of playing Pearl Harbor or something like that. I don't know if it'll be too financial. Oh, I don't want to do it. I don't want to do it ever taking any violence. That's the problem. I don't want to make a high recovery going at the Federal Reserve. I don't want anyone fencing violence. So we're not going to do that. We'll just understand it. So I need you to watch this. I don't think you're... I don't think anyone here, in my opinion, personally, is qualified at this point to trade immediately off of volatility. It's too... It's a challenging thought process. But I would use it as a speed limit, at least. You know, to recognize that when vol is rising, it invites smaller positioning. Vol is falling, bigger positioning. But positioning in the direction of the market. Financial Hari-Kari. I should know this by now. I have to learn what that means. Jefferson. Maybe you can put up a definition. Anyway, so we have the Bitcoin volatility. Now, this is one of the core fundamental attributes of the standard model of physics. Or this should be the standard model of particle physics. And it will become the standard model of financials. You know, my standard model. Okay. It's just statistical reality. Falling volatility is just observably, mechanically less volatility. It's a measurement. Implied, of all, is just buying a little push and charging a premium over the real-life volatility. So, when you have more and more people shorting volatility, when you have more and more people swing trading, people tightening their swing. You know, Matt Tuttle, my friend, I recommended to him, you know, what if you just change, make a BIT. He has a BITK. I said, there's a BITL. Why don't you BITL? Do two times. You can either do Bitcoin zero-day-to-expiration short call. Two times the short call. Or I would say do Bitcoin short call, short puts. Get rid of your delta. Just be short volatility. And then you can do this Bitcoin log, and two times short call, two times short put. And it'll be leverage shorting the volatility. The system is shorting the volatility. And as you see, it'll get less interesting to people. And people will not be able to speak with the algos. And you'll see Bitcoin fall again. The square root of the number of a period. With Bitcoin, it's 365 to 366. It's the root of that. Square root of that is 91. Equity, we use 1587 or 16. Because it's 252, 253 days. Give or take. We're at 3141. Bitcoin's at 25. Daily expected movements are 1.31. 3141 divided by 19. 1.65. 1.64. 1.644. So it can get less volatile. Can get less interesting. More people are going to make their money shorting it. The system, the M2 monster they created. And that's why I can say it can go to 10 million. Because we create, essentially, a quadrillion dollars will be shown up sometime in the next year or two. And then, in order to solve the problem, um, um, they'll just frickin' ocean more. And they won't have the stuff to do. Someone asked a question. Let me see. Oops. I almost canceled it by accident. Right. Can volatility of an asset be so suppressed and shortened that a fly ball is lower? Oh, of course. It's, it's, but it's, it's, it's so unsustainable that it's not a good signal. Um, but it's an excellent question. It's in the nest. I mean, it's in the purple pill. Um, actually, let me send it up into the nest for you who aren't familiar with it. So, the, the question is so much deeper, I think, than you even meant. It's so important. Um, that's the concept of skew. You see how much you're learning? We're going from a gamma, which is just trading those two-dimensional charts, you know, price through time. Um, it's an oscilloscope. And then you're just watching, you know, the vectors, the trading ranges, the breaches, the, the warping. Well, people don't watch the warping. That's what we're trying to do. Then we're watching volatility, and you're talking about skew. Well, what that means is that people are positioning, not against volatility, against skew. So, what that means is that people that are buying calls when D-ball is going down are lunatics. They, when you're buying a call, because it seems like it's getting cheaper, it's getting more expensive. That's what Druckenmiller says. Druckenmiller says he knew not to buy beta after the, uh, the apogee of 32400, the peak of 32400. He knew not to buy it, but he couldn't keep his hands off. And he lost 3 billion dollars riding it down. I like to buy rising PEs because those are companies accelerating faster than the market's, um, D-signals. And I like to short high market cap. I don't short anything small cap. Look what just happened. Service down. One of the big IGVs, one of the big 10s, okay? Um, they sold 12% on an acquisition. Did you want to be short the acquirer or the acquiree? You know, you're not seeing a merger between the top 10 out of premium. And software has been the weakest person to me. Okay. But the question is really so insightful. I want you to think about it and then come back again. The question is, what are the factors that cause people to sell an option? Assuming you buy an option, um, for more than the realized volatility. And it's because they think it's going up. The problem is, you can't keep on doing that because you'll run out of money. Similarly, you can't keep on shorting Bitcoin volatility when it's rising. You have to unwind your short. And then you become a buyer, and then that causes it to go up. But that's when we watch the kurtosis, which is the fourth. So we like it when the Bitcoin volatility devolves, starts looking like the volatility is losing energy. You see, not just Bitcoin volatility going down. But you, because look, look, look at our chart. We went up to 62. We went down to 40. We went 64. So we went from the high 30s to 64. Then we went all the way almost back down to a higher low. Then we hit a lower high. But this time, look, it's weaker. We get that second wave, okay, where people are getting blown up. Okay. And then you have the November 21. You see, if you notice that, this is what's important. We had that October 9th, 10th. Let's just call it 10, 10. Okay, let's 10, 9. You get 10, 9, 10, 10. And you got it in an excitation. It was very rapid. It was very rapid. One day, folks, it happened again. Slower. We're about to go much higher. We're going to have another wave of crypto crash. And that spike in 62 was smothered by Williams when he said, oh yeah, we're going to cut. Effective. And then Daley hammered her home the next day. And you can see they punched this thing down. What are they telling you? They're putting out the fire. But they're letting the embers burn. So what happens? One of two things. Bitcoin accelerates lower faster, in my opinion. And there's all spikes to both of these. And they don't cut. And it just goes bananas. Or they keep on cutting to hold the Bitcoin in place. But they slaughter volatility. And then what's happening is like the other person said. Someone is selling a foot. And they're not getting paid enough. And then they get liquidated out. So, how about financial innovation? OK. So, we've got to watch this. For the Def Cross, you know we're watching pay rise in the move index. And we had said yesterday during trading we were watching BXTLT. It's the ETF's version of the bond volatility. Because TLT is close to a bond. That's the bond future. Because the bond is the third year. But you can go less. And they're using, I guess, an 18 year average life. 18 to 21 or something. But BXTLT was down to a new five year low. IEF was down to a reaction low. It hasn't been around that long. And if both of those are down, then the 10 year would be down. You could see that bond would be up and IEF would be down. And maybe the 10 year would be down. Because IEF is an eight and a half year average paper. The US Treasury. And so you can see that the 10 year might be. Because the 10 year is essentially an eight and a half year apiece statement. Eight and a half duration, excuse me. But it could be up or down a little. But if they're both down, it wouldn't be up. And so we got the move index down to 67. It's two above its low. Folks, you've got to look at these things. You've got to look at the monthly charts. The different time frames. Daily, weekly, monthly. The daily and the weekly, they're volatile. They're noisy. There's all kinds of interference. The different death costs. But the bond has got a $4.18 or whatever still. But we've got a real problem. Because if you look at the charts, the 50-week goes back to... I mean the 50-month, excuse me, goes back to August of 22. We're not far away from getting rid of the 75s. Remember, we had 500,000 jobs. I remember exactly where I was. I was... I was on... I was in the Lincoln Center. I won't get into more. And helping get one of these textured paint jobs completed. Okay. It's that thick, thick paint you use like... You can make a blue jean. You can make a wall look like it's a blue jean with texture. Or a gray... Or any color wall. Then we got the 500... Or 500 meters, something like that, jobs. And we just have the rate hike. And Silicon Valley Bank blew up not far after that. But that was a 120. Going to 140. We're replacing those with 60s folks. 69. I think we take that to 60. I mean 67. I think we take that to 65. We go to 59. Oil is going to drag that down. Go look at oil and move. Okay. So, moving the walls will look... Anyway. We're in the high 50s. We start to fall fast. Why? We're replacing 120s, 140s with 50s. So let's call it 60. You're chopping it in half. You're going to be falling twice as fast. Oh, twice as fast. And that's going to start to be where we see the Fed needing to cut more. Again, I'm trying to get to... We're trying to finish these animations. I want you to understand the mechanism by which the Fed affects the yield curve. You don't know what's going on under a lake. You can't see the bottom. I mean, obviously. I'm not talking about like a little pond where it's not enough life disturbance. You don't know what's going on underneath. You don't know what's going on underneath the yield curve. We're going to try to educate you over time. And once you think you understand it, it doesn't mean it's tradable. It does not mean it's tradable. It really is always going to be. Consider years and years of this. You know, 80 tests, smalls, work with your advisor. Very powerful stuff, folks. It's totally not suitable for non-subscribers. They'll think they know what they're doing, and then they'll blow themselves up. But, think about that canoe that we push down the lake with little holes in it. A canoe made out of a colander, okay? If you do it through water, the canoe will very quickly fill up. If you do it in olive oil vats, they'll fill up slower. If you push a colander into a cauldron of honey, you'll raise the size of the walls of the honey, because the displacement of honey by a colander will last because of the very high pascal seconds of viscosity. But if you push water, if you push a colander into water, into a giant pot, let's say, you'll have no displacement. You'll have enough friction. When you have the tuya melting down in yield, and it's melting down in yield, you're sintining, you're detactining. They're taking away our dollar weakness in England. They're going to be. And so the volatility curve is going to start to swell in the two year, in the four trillion of two years, okay? In the one year. In the ten trillion of... Okay. And that's why I said you only have two or three more cuts before you see them needing to go 50, or the dollar will melt up. And what do we get right now? This cut. This is the genesis of the middle. This is the first time we had negative beta performance following the cut. We have four days. I've got to get the exact number. One percent. We totally surrendered all the growth for 17 months. All the expansion and beta inflation, betaflation. Betaflation. It's hard to think of a better word. And so, you know, we overdid it a little, given, you know, the dollar and the recalcitrance out of Europe. And we've got a balance of, what is it, I suppose, in the next 50, 40, whatever it was. And then today we're at 30... No, 44. Let me see. Let's look at them now. Let me see. Yeah, here we go. 47 yesterday, 50 today, 62. I want to get... I asked you to do it. I don't. I'm terrible. I was supposed to be doing it by getting the screenshots. And then just keep a running total of that. I'm going to have to have someone work on that to keep track of it. Okay. But we're still at 100. Now, we had almost 200 basis points of expansion in over 17 months with rate cuts. But it's not going to last. And because our rate cuts at a certain point are going to cause our carry trade to build up, our flattening, and our flattening. So we're getting flattening out of Japan, and we're going to get more flattening out of the U.S. And this is a problem. And this is why people say, oh, flatter curve means a recession. No. Flatter curve slows growth. But we have so much growth and so much potential. Equity. Remember, equity you don't have to service. It's equity. Sale of advertising. Oh, I prefer it. I don't have to pay. We have 100 trillion of equity in stocks and housing. Throw in gold, it's even more. So we're going to get that number. But we would expect that sequential cut, we're going to get even more data deflation. Data compression. And that's why we'll need to cut more. Otherwise, it's going to cause the dollar to go up. And then that will cause the whole thing to be more expanded. And then the selling program. Because when the bonds are going up in price, it raises your cost of collateral if you leverage it in systems, and it creates a new alternative. Right now, a bond that's not moving is a 5%. A bond that's declining is a 4% or a 3% sell return. Or less. What happens when the bond is stable under Laval and rises? Evacuates. It steals all the money. I mean, the insanity of people sitting down in Blackett and Drucker-Miller and Fink and Rabini and all of these other guys. Yeah, I have a subscription. These people are making billions of dollars with options. I'm asking you to spend $1,200 a year to avoid a fraction of one bad trade. So we're going to have the 1,000-day reset that they stopped accelerating. But it will re-accelerate mechanically by their impotence. The outflow from common tax into LaVada accelerates as the curve bolt ceases. Because of the transition from 6 to 40. We're at 627. Okay. We're at 627 on the mortgage with us seizing oil tankers. What is that? That's crazy. So I believe with whatever Trump is doing, oil will take out the lows. Oil gets into the $49.99 zone. It blows away all these experts all over the Twitterverse. They ask, please don't destroy your career by explaining why we're just about to get a big lift in oil. Because of the fundings. The lack of capacity. Folks, my brothers and sisters and cousins and nieces and nephews and friends, and I'm being euphemistic, were 50 times as it was oil time. When you take out a low after noon, that's called a crisis. The Venezuela is a sideshow. It's not a lot of paper coming up, not a lot of oil coming up. We take that down, we take down Booms, we take down DLT. Look at GDZ, folks. I put up an estimate. It's the number three chart. I put the volatility. Okay. Yes, oil got a little bit of a lift from a really low 29. We're at the lowest vol, you know, since that spike down in July. Silver, it had a lower high, and there's nothing there. There's no liquidity there. But look at gold vol. Gold vol is a disaster. Gold vol's worse than Bitcoin vol. Okay, gold vol has a much more organized deterioration. It's 30 billion, 30 trillion. 20 trillion, 30 trillion. And, you know, you have the Bitcoin money going into gold. What happens when that money comes out? Where's that money going? That money's going into bonds. It's going into 40 years out of Japan, 30 years over here, and it's going to go to 30 years over in the UK, and eventually it's going to go into the Italian, the French, and the German, and then they're going to be copying. Oh, I forgot the Swiss. Anyway, and then what's this last? Oh, yeah, just British pound rolling over. So let's do identity data today. Briefing. Nope, nope. Retail sales are having a delay. Get away. Okay, so I'm asking you all to do your homework. Do they stop selling? They're not selling mortgage-backed securities. Oh, they aren't selling them. But these are the framework. No. They are only rolling off, rolling off. They aren't selling. Oops. That's havoc of Cleveland. Cleveland said, said, called for selling. For selling. It wasn't adopted. Just think about this woman Beth Hammack. Very rich lady. Goldman Sachs, blah, blah, blah. Telling the Federal Reserve, let's make mortgages less affordable. Let's not just roll off, let's sell them. This is a sick lady. This lady is one sick puppy. Anyway, so we're learning so much together. It's so exciting. And I just, I want us to learn. I don't want us to, you know, we're still in the single A, double A. I don't want us to go to the big leagues. I want you to incorporate, I want you to speak to your people, figure out what's going on, A, B, test. Because the real money is when you can set it and forget it like Ronald Popino on the other side of the deleveraging. Because that's where deleveraging policy makers are going to try to scoop you all day long like the thing with the oils. What are they going to say when the oil makes it in the five-year law? It was a Venezuelan thing. Huh. What are they going to say? What are they going to say when gold oil takes out its 200A? It's got a range of 8 to 25, to 35, to 25 range. What happens when you take that out? People are going to be selling gold. So silver can outperform gold. But eventually, you know, gold's been outperforming oil. Silver, you can buy more. 1.2 barrels of oil for an ounce of silver. That's not sustainable. That's our new version of the gold-copper ratio. Copper's not a good signal because we're trying to get more of it here. We're putting on a tariff to make it more economic to create more mines. Okay, folks. I hope we're all enjoying this. Please, Christmas is coming up. Please, get one person you know to subscribe to a gift and tell them you're not covering them up on a gift. It will be the cheapest gift, in my opinion, to ever give because you will pay dividends like you can't even imagine. In my opinion, because we're giving people an insight, we're giving them a roadmap a little in front of markets. When you start to observe gold vol go down and gold go down, when you start to see D vol get lower, okay? I mean, what does gold vol at 20 mean? It means that it can move one change a day. Gold vol can go to eight, which means it can only move up a half a percent as it's expected to move. People are going to lose interest, and that interest, where's it going to go, folks? You know where it's going to go. It's going to go into low-paying, it's going to go into mortgages, and then it's going to go into bonds. And all we're saying is, let the market invite you in. There's plenty of time to get bigger and bigger and bigger, in my view, as prices rise. You're not even at a 52.5, you're nearer. 52 is low and 0 is the TLT. We're getting what happened in Bitcoin. You notice how Bitcoin had no volatility in last quarter. 105 to 115, it's low as vol in price, 8% for the whole month, okay? Price, it's the whole quarter, excuse me. That's 8%. We hit 800% in three months. You know, I just realized that. This is why I love doing these things. We had from February of 2009 to May, three months, 800%. We went from 800% to 8% in 8 to, 27 and 17 years. Can you see why people get less interested? Three months, you only got 8% movement, 8% movement, okay? So, that's what I'm looking at. I'm looking at an apogee of volatility. Now, the vol is a price discovery lower. So, we're watching for fall in vol in gold to allow the Hopiamites to have gold divided by gold vol. I'll get that chart out today or by tomorrow. Just like the Bitcoin, divided by Bitcoin vol. And you'll see that it's getting too stretched. It's not sustainable. And then the vol is going to bring the Bitcoin in. And it won't be noisy. The vol will be noisy. That's the kurtosis. But as it goes lower, it'll get less and less noisy. And you're going to lose fewer and fewer people. You're going to have less and less, fewer and fewer participants. More and more people shorting the vol. I mean, just think of all the money, the guys who shorted vol, and the gals that shorted vol, and the algos that shorted vol. At 33, when we were talking about, you can't keep the sockets. It was a three-stated deviation. We talked about three-stated deviation event. At 99.7, it's three out of a thousand. That's one out of 365. We said you can't keep the vol up. It doesn't go to forever. There isn't enough money to overcome a trillion, a quadrillion dollars suit of liquidity. We take the monster that they created. It's going to destroy them. It's going to destroy all volatility. Now, you can say, well, but why do you think that? NASDAQ volatility is going to go up. Because I'm looking at NASDAQ volatility relative to the S&P volatility. So they have suppressed that. That's the primary thing they've suppressed. And it's just going to melt up, one versus the other. You don't smother everything. You have escape valves. When people say, I want to get as much duration as possible. One functional way to do it is to short. I'm going to respond to that later. Okay, so we have a great opportunity to launch the E2A2O. Everything, everywhere, all at once. When I say everything, I don't mean every single thing that was ever created. We have to have escape valves. And when people start to grab duration, you're going to see Bitcoin get hurt harder. You're going to see NASDAQ versus S&P get harder. Because that is the negative duration. And as you lose your negative duration, neutralizing effect, you'll have to replace that. Okay, you know, when you're running a marathon and you're losing the glucose in your system, you're using it as fuel. You got to replace it. If you don't replace it, you'll run out of energy. So the selling pressure on treasuries is going to lose. You know, selling pressure on treasuries is a negative duration. You both run a short duration. I'm going to improve the way I try to frame this for you, but the entanglement is clear. They're so volatile. They're so thin. They're so illiquid. You can have, you can have shaman. You can have charismatics causing you. Mystics, soothsayers. This is what it would be. I'm like a financial dodini. I am going around the system trying to explain fraud. Fraud, fiction, hyperbole. Not everyone's a fraud. Some of them are legitimate beliefs. I'm trying to show people. I said to the guy, I said, you know, I'll come on in a couple weeks, a month, or if Bitcoin makes a new cycle low, it can get below 80,000, 500. You know, we had a little pump from Trump, right? On the oil thing. Okay, is that going to last? Of course, I don't think it is. Anyway, it's been great spending time with you. Go run. We're going to do open spaces today. And I may do, I might do a subscriber space this afternoon or Thursday. I don't know which one in the afternoon as well. Friday, I don't think I could do a subscriber space in the morning because I've got to be on site to make sure everything goes smoothly for this, so we can get this building permit application for a multifamily complete. So thank you everyone and have a wonderful day. Bye.