12.15.25 Sub Spaces

The transcription covers various topics such as market dynamics, investor behavior, financial cycles, historical market performance, impact of rate cuts, and discussions on government decisions and market trends. It delves into the concept of leverage, asset valuations, rate cycles, and effects on credit formation. The speaker also mentions specific examples and anecdotes to illustrate key points. The discussion encompasses a wide range of financial and economic factors. welcome to welcome to subscriber spaces on polarity radio or information only spaces don't make a transaction without professional advice and I'm not your professional advisor I'm watching Mayor Adams be attacked by Andrew Rothsork and why didn't you get out earlier he's the sitting mayor what's going on in the world horrible yesterday horrible horrible horrible Tucker Carlson's brother they're all doing the false flag narrative it's so crazy it's so upsetting when people look back at this time and they say we experienced a black swan from a major decline in the high-risk equities major decline in interest rate a major decline in oil a major decline in crypto we'll have to say folks it was not a black swan we talked frequently about the imagery from a movie scene where guys wearing a suit jacket and there's a little thread between the shoulder and the sleeve and they pull at it and they start pulling at it and before you know it the sleeve falls off markets rise on the buildup of leverage and confidence and hope and they fail on the involuntary deleveraging it's not voluntary deleveraging no one's gonna say oh it's over I really believe it but you know there's a chance that it won't work so let me get out that's not actually the way most investors work they stay in and they pray they pray for recovery they pray for something to bail them out well you know the old joke about the guy after the gates of heaven he's talking to St. Peter I think that's who it is and he says John really you know St. Peter says welcome how are you you made it up here and the guy says well I'm glad to be here but I'm not glad to be here right now why he says well you know you know how I died I drowned in a flood and you know I prayed I prayed and I'm telling this joke terribly as people often do I prayed and I don't know why God didn't save me because I'm a righteous man and then they reviewed the story he says do you remember when there was a policeman that came to warn you about the flood and he said no God will save you and then do you remember when there was a boat that came by and they said come aboard and he said no God will save you and then finally as the flood waters reached the roof the helicopter comes out with a letter and says come let us take you away and he said no God will save you do you know who sent the police the boat and the helicopter when the Fed cuts rates under inverted curve and there is no duration loss there's no duration deflation there's no yield compression for only shifting a fix to adjust for mortgages but as rate cuts increase and you go from you know like Bitcoin it started at zero it goes up to a tenth of a cent almost nine tenths of a tenth so nine one hundred nine point nine nine one hundredth of a cent that's an infinite acceleration when you have a deterioration in rates when you have mortgage activity at zero essentially percent adjustable no duration loss on the transition from fixed to adjustable it takes a lot to go from zero to any number then you get up to one then you get a double to get to two and then you get a double to get to four you already have two you have a number times two to the third to get three doubles eight three to the third gets you a full decimal going from 10 to 20 and 20 to 40 less force than 1 to 2 to 2 to 4 4 to 8 so when people are saying oh the curve could just keep in forever I don't know how a guy like Dunlap who's a fixed income guy I can understand Stan Druckenmiller who's only a price guy he doesn't understand the mechanics he lost three billion on the backside of the dot-com era he doesn't understand market dynamics he is very good when money is being printed and it's a long only story and he likes to find the high-risk stuff and he made billions and he made billions at a time when it was pretty easy so I want to give you an example if you start on September 29th 2002 and you divide the NASDAQ by the S&P 500 but one you know you have about the same price between the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 back in October of 1990 the S&P was almost twice the size the NASDAQ 100 was 55% of the S&P and then it goes up to 3.3 times in 491 weeks it expands by a six times greater amount these guys made their money when markets were illiquid when hedge funds but when mutual funds were becoming the thing and some hedge funds would just scoop up the money the shares and they dump them on mutual funds I mean they knew their models they had better models there was a lot of capital to hedge funds at the time and it was shooting fish in the barrel and assigning veneration and sainthood to people who are basically sliding downhill okay gravity is giving them everything and they're the heroes they made all the money forget arguments that some people felt there was a lot of front-running improper activity just the fact that it was the start of the super savings there wasn't many people doing it this way and now you have multi-strat and the big funds are making single digits now some hedge funds are better some hedge funds do worse. Stan was on going up to 6% tenure rate we got below 4% did you get the apology and then you have people talk to us we never recaptured the pre-rate cut which I say to you all the time folks it's just create a frame a reference point that's what killed Bitcoin the creation of a reference point from Bitcoin futures more so than the ETF it was the reference point you couldn't justify having an 8% swing between one fund and another one pool and another you knew what a Bitcoin future was it was a liquid real price and then it contributed to the collapse of volatility people are more confident swing trading became tighter because you had a reference point people would sell lower and buy higher and you know you have these people with these two-dimensional charts it's frustrating beyond any measure it's really disgusting and reprehensible I mean the cesspool out there between the hodling and the staking and the it's really a great buy and then the swamp of anti-semitism that says that the Israeli defense forces were behind because the shooter really is talented and it's a false flag for sympathy it's crazy but if you have a chart that doesn't identify a price going from a billion to a hundred billion versus let's try to do that let's say a hundred million to ten billion okay that's a hundred times and then ten billion to one trillion so we can say 200 million 250 million to 25 billion and then 25 billion to 2.5 trillion which is more difficult well we have an evidence it took 491 weeks for the NASDAQ to outperform the S&P by six times and you finished the rates were six and a half there were about six at the time of the peak March 10th 2000 which coincidentally was the start of a micro strategy 90.8 38 day decline under Michael Saylor's control and so that was 491 under 10 years six multiple we deflate in two years or so 70% so it took 10 years to build up you go up 6x you give back 66 70% of that more than two-thirds in just two years 10 up and two down and that would mean if you would have gone for another year at the same rate you'd like that reason going in three years versus ten then what do we do over 23 years and a day 23 years later we go up 3.8 times it went up 25% less than 25% of the pace and that's with rates getting chopped and so we're doing a chart a graph a diagram an animation I have my asked my people to put it together for you we're going to show what the behavior is in the different rate cycles in the top third the middle third and the bottom third of the yield cycle and this will help you with some of the understanding that people say well when the yield curve is inverted it causes recessions or it's coincidentally recessions well let's unpack that as the yield curve inverts what happens to the credit engine what happens to bank earnings and they're the ledgers that do 10 to 1 well the Biden administration blocked Amazon from merging iRobot with Amazon and today they went bankrupt good job how about some of the airlines it's a good idea to block the anti-competition but sometimes you got to use some judgment okay so as rates are going down and you cut rates what's happening you're depriving the system of profit which gets leveraged up and it's it's the reverse credit engine and then you have the mortgage that's an accelerator because you're losing credit formation because the banks are earning less the system's earning less because consumers are buying less hedge they're buying less all fully they're buying less insurance and that means that there's less credit to be created outstanding that's before the world of independent mortgage brokers so when they cut rates at the beginning that's your signal they're not cutting rates for no reason and as I said to you before once they start cutting rates once they stop hiking rates once they slow the pace of hikes all of these are your signal now you've got massively long when they slow the rate of hikes to a more modest one and that was that 200% rally and sang 192 in 20 and a half months but that was it if they want to have a normal cycle they stop letting the economy expand the stock market expand with all of its disruptive behavior that's not what happened we didn't get Greenspan to employ no allowing the Nasdaq to fall 57% intentionally before it steps in under an inverted yield curve no this guy just keeps on pumping it up pumping it up and we go from 139 peak which if you do the math we had a 10 and a quarter trillion GDP in 2001 39 it's about 4 trillion of market cap above GDP we're only now 225 times 30 so it's 125 times 30 so 1 is 30 trillion and 25 is another 7 and a half trillion so we're 37 and a half trillion so we're almost 10 times so if you were 36 trillion that'd be 9 times as much excess capital versus GDP 40 would be 10 so between 9 and 10 times the excess capital versus the last time so when we talk about this story about the cycles of high beta low beta no beta or ultra low beta and then read data and we also talked about the pig in the python this is the elephant in the python we never had the level okay we had 39% more than the economy dot-com error we had 5% more during the GFC we're 125% more so it's so much more money it's going to go somewhere and since we have a resilient economy you're not going to get this massive recession and credit collapse there's not enough supply for the savings club this is about a savings club folks September I mean August 15th 1971 Nixon pulls us out of the Bretton Woods post-World War II currency regime they didn't want to be giving up our gold just for $35 that then leads OPEC two years later to embargo oil and drive it up 290 to 14 and then absolutely 290 to 12 and then from 12 up to 40 by 1980 we just had intentional debasement of the currency and inflation target debasement of debt and people just put on debt and get days in LBOs and things like that private equity private credit lots of stuff but we create a savings glut and the savings glut is like a pinball a bowling ball a drunk in a fast suit just bouncing from one side to the other and the systems we've created these fragile delicate systems very leveraged banks that have to manage like they call Chinese devil sticks juggling sticks got to make sure duration doesn't get too short got to make sure duration doesn't get too long got to stay in parity or some banks will lose money some banks will go the way of Silicon Valley Bank Continental Bank, Franklin National Bank, Countrywide Financial, Naro, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, DailyBank, AIG this is just a loss of parity between assets and liability and policy makers think they can control these things but as they try to control them they don't actually control them they temporarily trigger equilibrium states but they're false actives they're localized equilibrium okay so we have too much savings and it's looking to eat it's hungry it'll buy savings going up it'll buy saying it's worth the calls it'll buy treasuries it'll buy mortgages it'll buy dividends it'll buy yields but folks these long-term US treasuries are sucking the capital out of tech they're risk-free they pay guarantee at the state of maturity there's no uncertainty not with any of the rating agencies we're losing it we're losing the liquidity when you see a ripple go down 57% XRP whatever 57% in an hour comes back and it's basically near or below for a very very long time that's equity decay that's going to lead to involuntary selling of some market participants and then it's going to end up causing a cascade effect when you see the big dog boil today 7509 I don't know what it is right now let's check 7509 is below the lowest whether it's a year or five years of 5750 commodities yeah folks 5705 let's send it up to you let's see if we can get that up there okay I posted that and now let's swing it up put it in next for easy consumption okay so we did that now let's do it for our friend ripple this is the thread in the suit that we're pulling okay we're going to try to get back to this next question but I want to just put the XRP okay so under one year it looks like a mess oops we have the great oh we have let's also put up in the main if we can find it you know what I gotta save it from there okay we have the correction we have post okay this is a great picture we love it this is a great name courtesy of Kylita you shall follow Kylita Sam Altman's Sam's fund of seven tables Fang gets decimated that means it loses decimated actually means killing one in ten but we could say decimated destroying the decimal so you just lose 97 Fang like we basically did in 2000 except the companies are more expensive now and when people say they're profitable they would have been profitable if they were keeping the curve and then the curve would have flattened and it would have smashed it okay there is that reply of his ripple so just in terms of groups equity it's just got a lot of market cap four trillion in crypto and then how much equity and how much debt well the debt doesn't go away it's the equity that's going away and when ripple drops I guess I mean not a forecast but it's 120 billion it's down from probably 210 billion and when it goes I guess what's it looking like it wants to go to 25 XRP 65 here yes so we moved from 28 billion to so from 28 29 to 260 what's that multiple 216 divided who is this somebody is quoted as saying oh let's go for staples whatever so you had a 750% rise in ripple after the election basically how much of that is debt leverage how much of that is equity how much leverage is against that so when you start going down in price and you lose equity and the liability is still there it creates more deleveraging more more force and so we're seeing it in oil now oil is 10 times the size of gold and silver it's one of all the metals combined 3 trillion or so I guess a year they say as oil which is the biggest part of any commodity trading advisors book it can't be too far away from benchmark the more oil goes the more problem you have and when you get less than $2 from an intraday model forget you lost the monthly or near the weekly you lose the you know you lose that you just go down and how much do you go down 10 bucks how much do you wipe away in equity 20 bucks how much do you wipe away it's a lot of oil out there China is building more storage that doesn't mean they're consuming more oil it just means they're creating more storage and that's what happens when the backwardation means that physical delivery has a higher current price that's a shortage contango is when there's a glut and then people start storing it and then that's when you build up a ton of storage so when you lose oil you're going to lose the commodities when you lose Ripple it's the small one but it does have a lot to go down it does mean it could lose a trillion dollars a hundred billion dollars and along the way you'll get selling in the alt and Solana and then Ethereum and then you know Bitcoin needs to hold the 80,500 it's not looking like you're going to get back to the 1,005 which is what you need to 105,000 to invalidate the quarterly bullish bearish engulfing candle but as you pull the thread out of the sleeve it's going to fall off when you pull down the equity in oil you pull down the equity in crypto and Ripple and as you pull down the equity in oil and oil prices fall folks that goes into the data that goes into the data Mark Zandi's out there just being so dis decontextualizing talking about the acceleration of unemployment the acceleration of of inflation inflation low there's a lot of momentum in those two trends coming out of the last administration and they're trying to build a narrative that things aren't great okay Rowrider according to Gabriel who sent the Rowrider TaylorMill's MFDRcom and Cheryl's another 888 in issues 119 in Ponzi prefers which will they will come and start hoping to buy a dividend to buy Bitcoin at the worst possible price near the week high it's so crazy okay so when you see oil go down and you see crypto go down what happens if oil and crypto go down together okay what if that happens and the dollar goes up from that we're losing equity the debt doesn't go away yes some of it gets written off but you're losing equity it's involuntary selling and then you have lower interest income from the rate cuts the banks start making lower loans okay let's get to this question oh boy okay where was that question oh here it is so right now the Fed announced specifically on September 17, 2005 that they were going to lower the interest rate by 25 days this fall um from 4.38 to 4.18 and we know that when they started the rate cutting cycle on September 18, 2024 they cut by 50 days points initially and the yield on the 10 year went from 3.6 it's really 3.65 I guess at the time but 3.6 was the local low and it went straight up with other rate cuts um 129 days point on the 10 year from that 360 or 124 from that 65 and we never got back down but each of the subsequent four November 7, 2024 December 18, 2024 and the September 17, 2025 the 10 year yield declined below each and every one of those levels it dropped below 4 the Fed does a lot lower rates they offered other things a lot lower rates and that created some stimulation and they cut again and they thought we got to get rid of QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT QT