DEEP DIVE - EPISODE 90 2025 Annual Threat Assessment (ATA), Securing America's Future

The transcription discusses the main national security threats identified by the U.S. intelligence community. It highlights the dominance of Mexican cartels in the drug trade and the increase in IED use by criminal organizations in Mexico. It also mentions the global threat posed by transnational Islamic extremists, such as ISIS-K and al-Qaeda, and the potential for increased capabilities of al-Shabaab through alliances. The report emphasizes the expanding operations of transnational criminals using corruption and technology, including digital currencies, for money laundering. It also mentions the significant threat from financially motivated cybercriminals and attacks on critical infrastructure. The report identifies China as the most capable actor threatening U.S. interests, with a focus on military modernization and cyber capabilities. It highlights China's ambition to challenge U.S. dominance and the potential conflict over Taiwan. Overall, the report emphasizes the need for intern Okay, so you're here with us on the deep dive because let's be honest, you want to really get a handle on the complex stuff, the big picture stuff, but without, you know, drowning in all the details. Yeah, you want the shortcut, right, to understanding the critical national security threats, you know, the ones that keep the experts up at night. Exactly. So today we're doing just that, giving you that clear, sharp look at what the U.S. intelligence community considers the most pressing threats right now. And we're also going to dive into how innovation, specifically in defense, is tackling those challenges head on. It's like your personal high-level briefing. Starting from two really important sources, we've got the unclassified 2025 Annual Threat Assessment, that's our, you know, our danger map, and then we're going to layer in the comprehensive review from the National Defense Lab, which really digs into solutions. What can we do about all this? And that's what this deep dive is all about, right? Extracting those key insights, the things you might miss on a first read, and then connecting the dots, so you walk away with a much clearer picture of, you know, where we stand and what we can do. Exactly. So are you ready to dive in? I am. We're going to start with non-state actors, the ones operating outside of governments. When you look at the threat assessment, what really jumps out at you? Well, I mean, the continued dominance of the Mexican cartels and the illicit drug trade, that's a big one. The Sinaloa and New Generation Jalisco cartels, they're still the main source for fentanyl, heroin, methamphetamine, cocaine flowing into the U.S., and you see the impact in the numbers. Over 52,000 deaths from synthetic opioids in the U.S. just in the 12 months leading up to October 2024. That's a staggering number, but the report does note a nearly 33% decrease from the previous year. What do you make of that? Well, it's a glimmer of hope, right? Maybe tied to increased availability of naloxone, but honestly, don't let that fool you. What's really alarming is this fragmentation of Mexico's fentanyl trade. It's like the lure of huge profits with, you know, relatively low barriers to entry to bring in all these independent producers. More cooks in the kitchen, so to speak. Exactly. It makes the problem so much harder to tackle because it's not just about targeting a few major players anymore. Right. It's everywhere. And the report also details another really concerning trend. The huge spike in IED use improvised explosive devices, not just against rivals, but against Mexican security forces. We're talking a jump from like three attacks in 2020 and 2021 to almost 1,600 in 2024. What does that tell us? It's a major shift. The techniques we used to associate mostly with terrorist groups are now being used by criminal organizations and on a massive scale. So this isn't just about, you know, drug trafficking anymore. It's reshaping the security landscape in Mexico, which of course has huge implications for our border and for regional stability. Absolutely. And the report's clear on where the raw materials for this are coming from. China and India are the main suppliers for those fentanyl precursor chemicals and the pill pressing equipment. It sounds like the cartels are getting really good at using brokers to circumvent those international controls. You know, mislabeling shipments, sourcing unregulated chemicals, that kind of thing. It highlights the global nature of this crisis, right? This isn't just a U.S. problem. It's deeply embedded in international supply chains. So to really disrupt it, we need much stronger international cooperation, tracing those chemicals, interdicting them at the source. Let's shift gears a bit now to transnational Islamic extremists. The report emphasizes that despite losing key leaders, ISIS still very much intends to strike the West, including the U.S. They're using online platforms to spread their message and looking for weak points in travel routes. Right. And what's especially concerning is the focus on ISIS-K, the Afghanistan-based affiliate. The intelligence community believes they're the most capable branch for launching attacks outside their immediate region. And we saw that in 2024, the mass casualty attacks in Russia and Iran, arrests in Europe and even the U.S. So this isn't just a regional threat, it's global. And al-Qaeda is still in the picture too, still looking to target the U.S. They're trying to exploit the current anti-Israeli sentiment to build support and encourage attacks against both Israel and us. Yeah. The fact that AQIP relaunched its Inspire Guide is a worrying sign. It's like they're giving a how-to manual for violence, bomb-making instructions, justifications for attacks. So there's a real concern about inspiring lone wolf attacks. Yeah. Potentially, right here. And the report also mentions that al-Shabaab, while primarily focused on Somalia, is building closer ties with the Houthis. Now, why is that connection significant for us? Well, that relationship could give al-Shabaab access to more sophisticated weapons than they currently have, so potentially increasing the threat they pose to U.S. interests and partners in East Africa and beyond. It shows you how these groups, even if they seem separate, can find ways to bolster their capabilities through these alliances. The section on other transnational criminals really broadens the view beyond just drugs and terrorism. These groups are using corruption intimidation and more and more technology to expand their operations and launder huge amounts of money, billions of dollars, according to the report. And the specific mention of digital currencies for money laundering and sanctions evasion, that feels very current. It is digital currencies. They have this perceived anonymity. They're less regulated. So they're attractive to illicit actors who want to move money across borders without detection. And the threat from financially motivated cybercriminals, it's still significant. The report highlights attacks on healthcare systems, local governments, critical infrastructure. You know, like that ransomware attack on the biggest U.S. healthcare payment processor in mid-2024? That had ripple effects everywhere, disrupting prescriptions, insurance claims. And what's even more concerning is this increasing focus on U.S. water infrastructure. Now, the attacks we've seen so far, they've had limited practical impact, you know, maybe inspired by Russian and Iranian actors, but they're a sign that these actors are interested in probing our vulnerabilities and essential services, the things we rely on every day. Right. And then there's human trafficking. It's a horrific issue. Yeah. And it talks about foreign and U.S.-based actors exploiting vulnerable people, including migrants for forced labor and sex trafficking. You know, some migrants end up in debt bondage to pay off smuggling fees once they arrive in the U.S., forced to work in terrible conditions. It's a reminder of the very real human cost behind these criminal enterprises. Absolutely. And while the report does note a big drop in migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border since January 2025, they attribute that to increased security measures. But the underlying drivers of migration, those are still there. Crime, poverty, political repression, and events like Nicaragua removing visa requirements, they can trigger those unexpected surges. So it's a complex issue. Okay. So let's turn now to the big players on the global stage, the major state actors. The report starts by stating that China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea pose enduring threats. And what makes things even more challenging is that they're increasingly cooperating with each other. This is where the strategic landscape gets really interesting. The assessment very clearly identifies China as the most capable actor threatening U.S. interests worldwide. And a lot of that is driven by their ambition for what they call the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation by 2049. And this deep-seated suspicion of U.S. intentions, you know, they think we're trying to contain their rise. And the report describes China's military modernization as the most comprehensive and robust military threat. They point to things like the PLA Navy's third aircraft carrier beginning sea trials, the likely deployment of the BF-27 ballistic missile, the advanced PCH-191 rocket launcher, all in 2024. That's a significant expansion of military capabilities happening really quickly. Yeah. And it signals China's intent to directly challenge U.S. dominance in the region and project power globally. They're focused on developing capabilities that can prevent or deter U.S. intervention in potential conflicts. That's a core part of their strategy. And China's cyber capabilities get a lot of attention, too, those built typhoon and salt typhoon campaigns. What did those show the intelligence community? Well, those campaigns showed China's ability to gain access to and potentially compromise U.S. critical infrastructure, power grids, water supplies, communication networks, so they could have this pre-positioned access. That gives them leverage in a conflict that could disrupt essential services and hinder our ability to respond. And then there's the ongoing tension over Taiwan. The report expects increased pressure from Beijing in 2025 and emphasizes the huge economic and security consequences of a potential conflict. The fact that Taiwan's diplomatic relationships continue to shrink due to Chinese pressure, that really illustrates their strategy. Yeah, a conflict over Taiwan would have global ripple effects. Taiwan is a vital producer of those advanced semiconductors that power so much of our technology and the potential for military escalation in the region, the major destabilizing factor. China's also being assertive in the South and East China Seas, leading to confrontations with countries like the Philippines and Japan. They seem determined to assert their claims of sovereignty, even if it risks sparking conflict. These maritime disputes are real flashpoints. There's a risk of miscalculation. China's willing to use assertive tactics, even if it's not outright military conflict. And that raises tensions in a critical global waterway. Economically, China's strategy is about becoming the leading global power. The report details their state-directed approach to dominate key markets and supply chains. You know, we've all seen the surge in cheap Chinese exports. And the report also highlights their use of economic pressure against countries that don't align with their interests. And their dominance in mining and processing critical materials. That's a big concern. Their willingness to restrict exports, like they did with certain metals, crucial for semiconductor manufacturing. It shows they can use economic leverage as a strategic tool. And it's not just materials. China also has ambitions in global shipping and access to resources, including in the Arctic. They've even expressed interest in greenwares resources. They're thinking long-term, securing trade routes and commodities. Yeah, their presence in the Arctic. It signals a long-term strategic view. They see the economic potential and the evolving geopolitical importance of that region. China's also making a huge push to become a global leader in science and technology. They're prioritizing AI, biotechnology, quantum computing, semiconductors, using both legitimate research and, according to the report, illicit means like intellectual property theft to get ahead. The projected growth of their technology sectors, it's massive. And their goal to overtake the U.S. as the leading AI power by 2030, that has huge implications for global competition across the board, from defense to the economy. The report also touches on biosecurity. You know, the ongoing questions about the origins of COVID-19. The intelligence community's assessment leans towards a research-related hypothesis. And China's dominance in the production of pharmaceuticals and medical supplies, that's highlighted as a potential source of leverage. The pandemic really showed us how important biosecurity is. And China's central role in that global supply chain for essential medical goods, that just adds another layer of complexity to everything. In space, China's made incredible progress. They've surpassed Russia, and they're aiming to rival the U.S. They have the BeiDou navigation system, ambitious lunar exploration plans, a rapidly growing commercial space sector. But the report also points to their development of counter-space capabilities, which is a serious concern for our satellite infrastructure. The ability to disrupt or deny access to space-based assets, that would have huge consequences for military operations, global communications, so many civilian technologies. We rely on those things every day. So space is becoming a critical area of strategic competition. And finally, regarding China, the report discusses their expanding efforts to exert malign influence. They're using everything from disinformation campaigns to AI-generated content to try and weaken the U.S. at home and abroad. That use of AI to create and spread fake news and sow discord in societies, that's a worrying development in information warfare. It's becoming more sophisticated. Now let's move on to Russia. The report frames their war in Ukraine as essentially a proxy conflict with the West. Russia's goal is to restore its influence in its near abroad. And despite the military and economic costs they've suffered, Russia has shown some resilience, partly due to support from China, Iran, and North Korea. And at risk of the conflict escalating with NATO, that's still a major concern. And the fact that Russia seems to be gaining ground in Ukraine, they're likely to have more leverage in any potential negotiations. That has implications. It could embolden other authoritarian actors and further damage relations between Russia and the West for a long time to come. Despite the setbacks in Ukraine, Russia's military is still a serious threat. They've maintained their air and naval power, and they're still developing long-range conventional weapons. Their advanced cyber capabilities and their past attempts to gain access to U.S. critical infrastructure, those are also highlighted as persistent dangers. And the report even mentions improvements in their electronic warfare and unmanned systems based on what they've learned in Ukraine. We're seeing them integrate cyber operations with traditional military actions in Ukraine. That presents a unique and challenging threat for us to counter. And Russia's efforts to spread disinformation and undermine support for Ukraine and the West, those are expected to continue and probably become even more sophisticated. And of course, their nuclear arsenal is large and diverse, and they're expanding chemical and biological weapons capabilities, including documented use of Novichok and other chemicals. Those remain major concerns. And the report goes into detail about Russia's development of anti-satellite weapons. And this is disturbing. They specifically mention the development of a satellite designed to carry a nuclear weapon for anti-satellite purposes. The consequences of something like that being used are almost unimaginable. Turning to Iran, the report focuses on their efforts to use their missile program, their nuclear ambitions, and their regional alliances to increase their influence and ensure the regime's survival. They're facing challenges from regional tensions and their own struggling economy. Right. Iran's still supporting what they call the axis of resistance groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. And they're committed to countering Israel and pushing the U.S. out of the Middle East. Their growing capabilities in missiles and drones, along with their increasingly aggressive cyber operations, those pose a serious threat to U.S. interests and our allies in the region. And the report also notes their efforts to develop surrogate networks inside the U.S. The report also highlights the instability in Syria following the conflict there. It's a potential breeding ground for ISIS to regroup. And the violence against religious minorities in northwestern Syria is deeply concerning. Despite recent setbacks due to Israeli actions, Iran's conventional and unconventional military capabilities still pose a threat to U.S. forces and our partners. And the Israel-Hamas conflict, that's further destabilized the region. The report expects continued volatility there. The Houthis in Yemen are also identified as a particularly aggressive actor, disrupting shipping and threatening regional security. Despite Iran's growing expertise in cyber warfare and their aggressive operations in that domain, those remain significant concerns. The intelligence assessment still says that Iran is not currently building a nuclear weapon. But the report suggests that the pressure within Iran to do so has likely increased. And their continued research and development of chemical and biological agents, that's something we have to keep a close eye on. It's a volatile situation. Regional dynamics and internal pressures within Iran could easily shift their calculus on their nuclear program. Now, finally, North Korea, under Kim Jong-un, remains committed to developing both strategic and conventional military capabilities aimed at the U.S. and our allies in the region. Their partnership with Russia is giving them tangible benefits. Financial aid, diplomatic support, defense cooperation. Kim Jong-un has made it clear he will not negotiate away his strategic weapons programs. His nuclear warhead stockpile is growing, and they're making advancements in their ballistic missile technology. It's a direct threat to the U.S. and our allies. And North Korea continues to evade those international sanctions through things like cryptocurrency theft, which helps fund their military programs. Kim's also increasingly willing to take aggressive actions against perceived threats, including potentially using more lethal asymmetric tactics. That's a major concern. And the support they're getting from Russia, particularly in bolstering their nuclear status, that complicates international efforts at denuclearization, and it increases regional instability. The report also includes a section on adversarial cooperation. It stresses the growing collaboration between China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. This coordination makes each of those individual threats more potent, and it creates new complex challenges for the U.S. The war in Ukraine has definitely accelerated these alignments. These relationships are mostly about mutual benefit and a shared desire to push back against U.S. power. You see that in Russia, strengthening its military ties with North Korea and Iran and expanding trade and financial links with China and Iran to get around sanctions. The report specifically calls out the cooperation between China and Russia as having the greatest potential for long-term risk. They point to their combined military exercises and China providing dual-use technologies to Russia. And then there's China's increased imports of oil and natural gas from Russia and their growing cooperation in the Arctic. That all underscores the strengthening partnership. It's a strategic alignment that poses a serious and lasting challenge to U.S. foreign policy and national security. Okay, so let's shift gears now and look at the comprehensive review from the National Defense Lab. It focuses on how innovation in national defense is critical to meeting these threats. A key theme is this evolution of warfare into the digital and ideological realms where cyber tactics and controlling information are becoming central. The paper introduces this concept of a digital Cold War with China. It highlights how China is using platforms like TikTok and Xiaohongshu or Red Note as tools for influence operations. They use AI-driven content curation to subtly promote narratives that benefit their interests. It's fascinating and kind of unsettling. The apps we use for entertainment can also be channels for psychological warfare, shaping perceptions and pushing certain narratives globally. And the paper traces the evolution from traditional propaganda to this new age of digital influence. Social media platforms have amplified the reach and impact of these psychological operations. The paper goes into detail about how these Chinese apps, while seemingly just for entertainment, they subtly spread Chinese ideology, especially to younger Americans through their algorithms. They often highlight China's economic growth and social stability, but downplay or omit anything negative or critical. What's the impact of that kind of subtle messaging over time? It can subtly influence how younger generations view the world, their own country, and the values and systems of other nations. It's a long game. It's about shaping global opinion. And the paper raises concerns about the direct political influence these platforms can have on American politics and governance, their potential to sway public discourse and spread misinformation, particularly during elections. And there's also the censorship issue. The Chinese government has access to and control over the content on these platforms, and that's largely invisible to American users. The paper also raises serious concerns about freedom of information and potential manipulation. So the paper argues that China is playing a long game using soft power and information warfare through these digital platforms. And AI-driven content manipulation is key to promoting their narratives on a global scale. So the big question is, how does the U.S. respond? The white paper outlines some crucial steps. It calls for advances in our cybersecurity and information warfare defenses, using AI tools, and strengthening international collaboration to counter these digital threats. It also recommends actively reinforcing the narrative of American values and exceptionalism, and emphasizing our core principles through education and strategic media campaigns. And finally, it stresses the need for public education and media literacy initiatives to empower citizens to critically evaluate information online and recognize potential manipulation. The bottom line is that we need decisive action to protect our digital sovereignty and strengthen national security in the face of these foreign-backed platforms and their influence operations. So to wrap up our deep dive today, the 2025 Annual Threat Assessment shows us a complex web of interconnected threats. We have non-state actors evolving their tactics and expanding their reach, and major state actors like China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea posing significant and enduring challenges. And their cooperation with each other is making those threats even more potent. As the comprehensive review makes clear, staying ahead of these threats requires constant innovation, particularly in the digital realm. The landscape of conflict has changed. Understanding information and influence is now as critical as traditional military strength. So this has been a sobering, but I hope insightful, look at some of the most pressing issues facing our national security. Thanks for joining us. And one final thought for you. As you navigate this complex world, think critically about the information you encounter every day. How does information, both intentionally and unintentionally, shape your understanding? What's your responsibility as an individual to be a discerning consumer of media? Maybe explore some of the strategies being developed to counter digital influence. And think about the ethical implications of using AI in this new arena of information warfare. Food for thought, for sure. Thanks again for joining us on the Deep Dive. See you next time. This has been another episode of Deep Dive, brought to you by National Defense Lab. For more information about this topic and others, please visit our Deep Dive podcast page on nationaldefenselab.com. Thank you for listening.