12.18.25 Subspaces

Welcome to Subscriber Polarity Radio on Spaces, Thursday morning, December 18th, 2025. This is an information-only station, but I make a transaction of both professional advice, and I'm not your professional advisor. As expected, the European Central Bank, in an attempt to sabotage our administration in the United States, has not cut taxes despite a collapsing economy. The UK, with 1 tenth of a percent growth and very high real rates, has decided to cut rates by 25 percent, so they're 3.75. And as one of our listeners was able to catch, I was busy, and I had noticed, it's not so big in terms of dollar amount, but it's important in terms of direction. Switzerland, in fact, has a negative interest rate. Four larger institutions with, as they would probably describe it, inadequate credit utilization. If you have too much capital unencumbered by loans, you get to pay a tax, or you get a negative interest rate. So the world has started to return to negative interest rates, and this is what I'm trying to highlight for you, are three vectors from that statement. Number one, we need to amplify the spaces, so we have more people scooping up valuable information. Whether you're reposting spaces, whether you're gifting subscriptions, whatever you're doing, the more we get the message out, the more we're going to be able to have these little things become roadbacks to think that this negative rates in the world that all people are talking about is how the Japanese 40-year yield is up. Meanwhile, it's up 92 times. How much more is it going to be a problem? Another vector is when the Fed slows the rate of tightening from 75 to out of 50, or more, you could go back to June of 2022, when they stopped accelerating. Each one of these is a centripetal or an orthogonal shift. It was a deceleration, and the initial phase is, oh, we're going to be able to buy equities, we pull the treasury prices down, equities can fill the gap, they can become negatively entangled, yields go up, stocks go up, or I should say, become perfectly entangled. Negatively responsive. And then you start having people being able to sell SKUs. You have people saying the maximum range of something happening is limited. And then after you have the SKU selling, people making boatloads selling above range prices. Then you have people selling volatility. Folks, there's too much money out there. So, we have an enormous amount of information. Wow, Trump just partnered with Google and Chevron. What an interesting fact. I didn't know, I just saw the headline. PA Technologies is Google and Chevron. That's a lot of capital. I wonder if there are going to be some administration subsidies for, if we're going to be getting more subsidies for fusion. Anyway, so getting back to it, we have this ocean of liquidity, but it's slowing down. So, I went into one of the Bitcoin spaces two nights ago. It was really one of the much more hostile ones in the last month or so. You know, you've seen Bitcoin come down, and I get more engaged when people are inviting me to go to different spaces, where they want to hear both sides of the argument. I was a mega bull, and a mega bear, and a mega bull. Or maybe I can describe it differently. I was bullish and bearish at various times. So, the market structure was all the easy money was already made. In 2021, when I basically am retired, there's been a series of waves, some drawdowns of waves. We're now ready for a mega reset, and I expect on the other side, mega consolidation, and then mega bulls. But these people didn't want to hear anything. They were shutting down all the information. They just don't want to understand some of the mechanics of why we're deleveraging. And I care so much, because I try to think about it as... I can't remember that name. We have different parts. Maybe Lego, they have the two-section, the three-section, the four-section. Oh, Stratego maybe. Maybe it's Stratego. Anyway, or Scrabble. All right. Okay. So... I don't know what this latest thing is. It's Excel Ranger. Okay. So, I'll just drop down. Oh, yeah. So, if you think about a roller coaster with a front car and five seats, and then you have a four-seat, a three-seat, a two-seat, a one-seat cars, and that's the Ivy basis. What that's telling you is... in matrix algebra, something is, say, moving at five times the speed. And those things are moving at four times the speed. And when you see something like Bitcoin, again, it's not a two-dollar stock anymore. It was part of a four-trillion-dollar ecosystem with a two-point... and it's peak, 126. Let's do that. 126. 272 times 2.1. Oops. Times 21. 21. So, 2.65 trillion. Oh, I just got a note. I'm not sure what it's about. Oh, okay. So, again, it falls out on the yield. We're... We've got the three-year... Oh, let's recheck this. Okay. So, the two-year... Oh, let me send this up to you. These are the important yield levels, folks. We're about to collapse in this. We're about to make new lows. This is chronic yield insufficiency. You know, notwithstanding a risk mentality. You know, there's opium. There's outrage. Oh, we're going to get a magical move up to the giant 425 like Bill Gross said. Because we have, you know, we have the Elliot wave. Well, you know something? Elliot waves aren't mandatory. They're packed to a destination if the destination is achieved. So, the two-year is at 3.456. And I think I have another chart of the two-year. There it is. We bounced off of that level and we came right back. Folks, the federal government is in there buying $3 billion a day of trematories today. It's 15 last weeks. And then we're going to be doing another $45 billion in the next three weeks. So, they're all excited about equities, and I think a lot of people are going to sell into this rally. And whether it's today or whether it's tomorrow, that's not the point. When you clean out these buying screens, it's a lot of people just trying to exit. How will this help you? The problem is lower yields are not good for stocks. Lower yields are a big problem. All this is is the Thanksgiving screw-up. They're all within five. 2.7, a little light. You're a piece of garbage, you asshole. What do you mean a little light? That's a catastrophic failure. You are so drunk to raise me, Cedric. You are sick. You're crazy. You're crazy. You're crazy. You're crazy. You're crazy. You're crazy. You're crazy. You're crazy. You're crazy. You're crazy. You're crazy. You're crazy. You're crazy. You're crazy. You're crazy. You're crazy. You're crazy. You're crazy. You're crazy. You're crazy. You're crazy. You're crazy. You're crazy. You're crazy. You're crazy. You're crazy. You're crazy. 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The side of mortgages is something that most fixed income people don't understand, and I can guarantee with my highest confidence level, or I can assure you, with my highest confidence level, one-tenth of one-tenth of one percent, maybe, in the Bitcoin universe understands it. It's going to be so bad. The last thing they want is lower rates and people reaching off the curve. Let's try to get that up in the minutes. Wow. These are delicious numbers. For Main Street, we are going to get what we want, which are lower mortgage rates so people can move. The five-year is the lowest yield on the curve, or the greatest decline in yield today. We have more work to do. By the way, we had that vote yesterday in one of these Arizona districts, and they voted against an AI data center. Bernie Sanders said, we need a moratorium. What is this guy doing? So, he's at 11.6 basis points. What? So, we are three basis points on the five-year above inversion. Well, once you're inverted out to the five, what's next? The seven-year, that's 24 basis points almost. They cut in England, and they're up three basis points on their 10-year. Congratulations. Let's post this. Let's post this. Congratulations, Trump. Congratulations. How do you say, oh, I just want to say short treasury, when rates are melting down, when inflation is melting down, when oil, which is not in the data, the five-year low on gasoline on Wednesday is not in the data yet. It's going to enter the data. Folks, you've got to watch yesterday's close. You must watch the close we had yesterday. Make sure you write down what the price of QQQ was yesterday. In fact, I'm going to send it up to the next, because at the point at which the market takes out the low of the close of yesterday, what is that telling you? People are exiting despite the data. People are exiting because of the data. I'm exiting because of the data. We're about to get the greatest bond market rally either since 1984 or ever. Why? Because you've got infinitely overvalued equities, $37.5 trillion above GDP. We're $4 trillion above GDP in 2000. We're more than nine times more overvalued. That money isn't staying in overvalue, it's leaking out. They're having a good old time buying Bitcoin, shorting Ripple, shorting Ethereum, shorting Solana, shorting the alt. They're having a party. What happens when Bitcoin hits $79.99? They're going to be looking at, oh, shorts but on the rings. When people ask me, I tell them what I think. I found that to be a simple way of dealing with people, and they expect you to do that. I'll get feedback for you. Yes. And as he asked you, what about this guy that we're mentioning now? Everybody keeps telling me stuff like that, Gracie. I understand. I understand. Let's talk a little bit about China, because you are somebody who... We've got these rates, 3.447, 3.447. Try not to get distracted by the rate. They're going to claim that the long end of the curve is so bubbly, and buoyant, and dead, and deficit, and the vigilante. Folks, it's all story. It's all noise. There's nothing out there. There's no supply. Watch the one-year hitting a new monthly year low. Okay. Watch the two-year, three basis points for multi-year low. And we have bi-programs of $3 billion a day, $60 billion a month, and that's $80 billion more than two weeks ago, two and a half weeks ago. There is no supply. And when you start taking these two years close to the three and a quarter, what happens when we go to three and seven and eight? What happens? What happens? Excuse me. Three and three-eighths. What happens? You're inverted to the next guy. There's no supply. They're eating through on already $14 trillion. We're going to be eating through on $17 trillion. There is no supply. There's only $13 other trillion of marketable. So crazy. So nuts. And these people have so much hate. Whatever. They don't want inflation down. They don't want rates up. What are we looking for? What are we looking for? They push it out. And they've got a good job done by the President and then by Scott Beshear. And I helped around with it, too. So they've agreed on at least two meetings. Make these meetings four between the two presidents. Now, that could be a symbol in China, the idea of having meetings between heads of state. It means you don't do anything to inflate things in that run-up. It's so exciting. It's so exciting. I mean, it's just not much today. You've got four weeks. It's, what is it, five times the credit default swap. It went $800 off the curve. SNCI. I mean, things are round-tripping. I'm calling them arcs. AI round-trip. The art club. Okay, we're going to do some meetings on the art club. We're going to have the art museum. We're going to have the charts of these companies doing the round-trips of AI. SNCI back to 10. Corby back below his IPO. How is that not going to happen with the debt that they have? So, it's hard. She's trying to say, I'm not cutting, but I'll be cutting later. They're crazy. They're crazy. Oh, that will happen here on paper accounts while digital. We'll have Ray circle. The sign explains how the lower zero bounds can be broken. Anyway, the exciting news I have for you folks, I have very exciting news. I am thrilled to tell you this news. Yesterday I came to an agreement in principle to develop an affiliation with one of the members of an educational institution who is a professor of quantum physics. And we're going to attempt to improve the quality of quantum finance and try to develop a variation of the financial Schrodinger equation that explains determinism in prices. Now, I was given a paper yesterday that I read part of, and I couldn't read anymore because it was the most amateurish thing. And when I discussed it with the professor, he says, you recall me saying that it was a low-quality paper. I said, I remember that clearly. I was reading it to see if there's anything here. And all I was looking for was a statistical model, which I valued very highly, but it was a completely local model. It was only dealing with stocks. It wasn't dealing with money supply, mortgage function, all these other rate functions. All of these are varied. So I got two more papers I have to review. So if you think you've got a hard day, you know what it's like reading research papers in a frontier science, a frontier economics? Do you understand how dry that stuff is? I actually love it. I drink it down. But it would break your brain cells. You would hate it. You would loathe it. I love it. So I have to go to check on a site where we're drilling tomorrow for environmental, for a multifamily. It might be a low income. I don't know if it's market or low income yet. So I'll be doing that. And while I'm there, I'll be reading some, what you would call, dry tank. But I'm excited. I am so excited to get a real, very, very high level. He has experimented. I mean, a real thought leader in the salon of quantum. And to be able to find out, it overlaps with my view about whether markets have strong force, weak force, electromagnetic force, or gravitational. Because I think we have different forces. Radioactive decay, the weak force. You just, you build up an asset too big. It sheds density to other things. Or black holes traveling in a helix pattern, vacuuming the capital. The passive money analogy. I'm going to be so excited. I cannot tell you. To get more determinism, it will be just, it will be so much trouble. So I have now three PhDs under the cage, the QH, enterprise. And it's fantastic. So utilities are up because of AI. Utilities are up because of these blue state diversion of money to non-electric generation. And how about the importation of overseas LNG instead of a pipeline at 20% of the cost? It's $2 billion that's around here. Oh, I thought I was going to stand up into the net. The, where is it? Where is it? Where is it? Oh, my gosh, what are you talking about? Okay. So, I'm setting this up. Okay, let's see. By the way, if somebody wants to come up, there's not going to be up here much longer. There's not much else going on. That was just, that day was just so delicious. It was so delicious. You're talking about a massive miss on, a massive miss on inflation. So we have 60 basis points of expansion, and yesterday we have 75 of compression. So we're watching 600. You go to 599, all of this whole thing about rates, which are actually bad, and lower rates are bad for tech. Lower rates are not good for tech. That's math that you'll learn. We'll go over over time. This is bad over time. You want more credit expansions. Lower rates are net reduced credit, whatever the justification is. Okay, who's coming up? Who's got something to say? I've got to get out of here before... Do I have to eat here? Go eat. What's the matter with you? Go eat. Eat. Eat. Lazy dog. I'm going to have to, when the dog doesn't eat, I have to give her, I've got to put hot dogs on top of it. It's not fun. Okay. I just, I am such a leap. We're going to get lower mortgage rates today. You know, one of the things I cannot stand about Twitter, I saw a guy works at one of the big places, kind of like a normal guy, and now they're shock-shocking him. He has to say, oh, mortgage rates are up 25 base points since the rate cut. The fact is, that's not accurate. We're only 16 base points above the low yield, and today we'll be lower. Okay. We were down nine base points to 590 and a 76. I'm not getting quotes on that. I've got to get a quote on that. I've got to get the 5.4. I'm not getting a good quote on that. That was, excuse me, the 5.1. That was 540. Anyway, it's just, this is so exciting. Main Street, the revenge of Main Street. It is so exciting. I don't know what this is. I don't know what this is. I don't know what this is. I don't know what this is. I don't know what this is. I don't know what this is. I don't know what this is. I don't know what this is. I don't know what this is. I don't know what this is. I don't know what this is. I don't know what this is. I don't know what this is. I don't know what this is. I don't know what this is. The CTI 2.7. Let's see. Okay. Do we have anyone? Oh, we got someone. Toto, what's going on? Toto. I'm doing very well. I'm very, I'm so excited. I mean, last night I had such good news. I really have the highest functioning person, not just a regular professor of quantum physics. We've had experiments done, and we're really going to be able to map out a better mathematical model clinically and deterministically than I've been doing. I needed that help, but I, you know, I didn't have the resources to get that engagement, and now I have it, and I'm so excited. And then Main Street, screw the haters. Screw the gun lags. Screw the losers. We are taking these deals down. The new load for the one year, the two year is a couple of basis points from a new load. The data doesn't include energy prices having broken down. The data doesn't include the real owners' equivalent rent. It doesn't include the real investment services. David, after looking at the 40 million QE announcement, if you would equalize to the rate cut, how much would be that rate cut? Four points? Um, no. Uh, 48, 48 basis points. I do what, I, because, but the problem is it's not 48. They're not doing it the whole time. So the point is, if they were doing it for the whole year, it would be 48 basis points. I just say, what's the annual divided by 10? Right, because 48 over 10 years, you know, but they said they're only doing the 40 for a month, and then they'll see afterwards. Gotcha. All right, thank you very much. That's it? Nothing else? Yeah, I got a busy day, but I'm listening to you. Thank you. But isn't it exciting what's going on? It's happening. Thank you very much. Okay, these mortgage rates, baby. Main Street, Main Street. We love it. It's happening. It is. The haters are going to hate. Okay, we released you. But come back. Okay. Uh, anybody else? Um, there's nothing really, other than celebration. It's a celebration today. All there is is doom and gloom, because Trump is getting his way. I did not vote for the guy. Okay. I didn't vote for him. But I love what America's done for the world. And I like a strong America. And I'd like America to not hate itself. I just, I mean, lower mortgage rates will destroy inflation. They will take inflation. Folks, we lost 7.7% in 13 months. Okay. Uh, oil. Where is oil today? Commodities. We're up 24 cents. We're at $56. And we're talking about having an embargo. You watch and see. They barely do anything. And this will flush oil down to $49.99. I mean, if he does nothing, you know, and we get $49.99, what's that going to do to inflation? Uh, Bitcoin volatility is down 245%, 45.85%. We've got, um, about 6% more. We've got to take our 43. And that's when it could go lower and drag down Bitcoin. Now, Bitcoin could go up and drag up Debalt. But for today, you have Bitcoin going up. And people are selling, it feels like people are selling Bitcoin volatility, puts, to be able to get longer. And it's pushing it up. And then, so it's good about, oh my gosh, what am I doing? The most important thing. Oh, we have to wait till 9.30. I wanted to see what volatility was doing in the bonds, what we're going to get on the move index. Oh, that's going to be so delish. So delish. Um, I, I, I, you could have people buying, you know, puts. Um, and then, you know, lifting, you know, as these pull rates down. But, you know, it's a pretty big yield move today. The five year's down 4.7. That's 6.48. That's, um, 2.5 to 4.8 is 2.4. So we're 2.4 away from, from, um, from inversion onto the fives. Um, we're 4.114. Remember, Rick Ventelli's the big cheerleader. We just surrendered the prior hump. Um, I don't know. So someone was asking, someone said, how is the Doctrine on Insuring Palantir? Well, I said, well, if the Fed cuts more than guidance, you'll send Palantir to a new high. Then we give the dollar too much. Where's the destination? Much lower, mind you. It's just all about policy support, and they have a little more. But look at how much damage we did. We had 4 out of 5 days, 5 out of 6 days, we had compression. Um, 4 out of 5 days, today's Thursday, 4 out of 5 days compression. Today looks like it's an expansion day. So the, 2 out of 4, but we've got amazing data, but we're going to get to a point where the Fed can't stop us. We're going to get the rates to the point where it can't stop the refi rate. Um, it's so exciting. Always nice to make that appear to be a trade. No, like someone just pointed out, you know, if you look at, um, at, uh, um, um, I can't tell if I'm supposed to, if you look at, um, um, um, um, someone's just, you know, calling out a daily bear flag, okay. You're saying they're not cutting. We're actually getting data that's going to force our cutting. They're allowed to throw themselves into a depression to try to hurt this president. And the U.S. economy. And the mainstream. It won't last very much longer, but it affects the charts, and then you have the day traders who, um, who think that, oh, you can react to this policy noise. They can do it, then they get blown out, I think. Um, let's see. Um, anyway, I'll post it later when it comes out. If anybody wants to speak, please come up. But I'm sure like I'm going round and round, there's not really that much news. It's just all good news. It's all exciting. It's just people who are buying tech today feel really bad for them. Because they're brainwashed into thinking it makes sense to buy tech on lower rates. And we're at the point where lower rates, oh, you know what we could take a look at? Let's take a look at the probabilities of rate cuts. Uh, we just went to 26.6 from 24.4. Okay, I'm going to put this up. Okay, so we have 26.6. Remember folks, 33, that's the range of neutrality. Um, we're now up at 11 for sequential cuts. Okay. Okay, we're 11. And then let's check um, April. We're up at 3.2. I just think we have to go sequentially. I don't think we can not go sequentially. And then at some point we'll have to go to 50. Um, I'm putting this up in the notes, folks. Um, sequential uh, 25 basis points. Sequentially using using probabilities. Probabilities. Okay. We're doing this, we're setting it up. I was asking a question we're going to be uh, getting started on today. Okay, I put it up in the notes, everyone. These are the probabilities of the rate cuts. Um, it's uh, 26 excuse me, it's 26.6 11, 10.9 and 3.2 are the probabilities of sequential cuts. Um, you get one at each of the meetings. It's a client. But I'm watching um, that 3.2 because I think that's going all hundo. Or I think it's going to happen. Okay, everyone. Thank you very much for coming. Um, today is Thursday so we will be back uh, tomorrow in the morning and then I'll be doing an open faces at night. Let me do this recording.